[
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V01",
    "number": 1,
    "source": "Geoffrey Hinton, 2016",
    "prediction": "Training radiologists should be stopped, because machine learning would read images better than humans within five years.",
    "target_year": 2021,
    "self_interest": "Researcher, no commercial interest",
    "status": "Missed. Ten years later, the official French statistics count more radiologists, more assistants and more imaging centers than in 2014, with bottlenecks in recruitment.",
    "sources": [
      77
    ],
    "line": 704,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 1 (WAAI-2026-V01). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V02",
    "number": 2,
    "source": "Dario Amodei, Anthropic, May 2025",
    "prediction": "Up to half of all entry level positions could disappear within five years.",
    "target_year": 2030,
    "self_interest": "Vendor whose business depends on the effectiveness of the technology",
    "status": "Qualified by the source himself; reinterpreted in 2026 as a management decision. No measurement criterion named; the report tests against the hiring rate of 22 to 25 year olds in exposed occupations. First interim status: the unemployment rate of more than 10 percent announced alongside it has not materialized, it stood at 4.1 percent in August 2026, while hiring of 22 to 25 year olds in the most replaceable occupations has fallen by roughly a third since 2021.[136][138]",
    "sources": [
      27
    ],
    "line": 705,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 2 (WAAI-2026-V02). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V03",
    "number": 3,
    "source": "AI Futures Project, AI 2027, April 2025",
    "prediction": "A system that completes every programming task faster and more cheaply than the best human developers, in the course of 2027; a near complete hiring freeze for programmers from mid 2027.",
    "target_year": 2027,
    "self_interest": "Authors from safety research, not a vendor",
    "status": "Pushed back by the authors themselves; the median now lies around 2030. The scenario's labor market claims have no evidence base of their own.",
    "sources": [
      127
    ],
    "line": 706,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 3 (WAAI-2026-V03). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V04",
    "number": 4,
    "source": "Gartner, July 2026",
    "prediction": "60 percent of organizations move their software development to small teams across the board, after 15 percent in 2026.",
    "target_year": 2029,
    "self_interest": "Market researcher, sells consulting on the rebuild it describes",
    "status": "Open. The methodology behind the 15 and 60 percent is not disclosed, an analyst estimate.",
    "sources": [
      53
    ],
    "line": 707,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 4 (WAAI-2026-V04). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V05",
    "number": 5,
    "source": "Gartner, July 2026",
    "prediction": "Companies that forgo entry level hires today will hollow out their own junior talent base by 2028.",
    "target_year": 2028,
    "self_interest": "as above",
    "status": "Open. No measurement criterion named; the report tests against the share of entrants among new hires in exposed occupations and against the salary premiums for experienced specialists.",
    "sources": [
      53
    ],
    "line": 708,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 5 (WAAI-2026-V05). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V06",
    "number": 6,
    "source": "Zach Lloyd, Warp, July 2026",
    "prediction": "Within a year every significant software project runs an automated development engine; the share of automatically submitted code changes rises from around 20 to between 30 and 60 percent.",
    "target_year": 2027,
    "self_interest": "Vendor of the tool described",
    "status": "Open. It will be tested against vendor statistics on automatically submitted code changes, with the caveat that these measure output and not value.",
    "sources": [
      93
    ],
    "line": 709,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 6 (WAAI-2026-V06). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V07",
    "number": 7,
    "source": "Goldman Sachs, 2026",
    "prediction": "With full diffusion of today's use cases, 2.5 percent of American employees are affected, the unemployment rate sits half a percentage point above trend during the transition phase and returns to it within two years.",
    "target_year": 2028,
    "self_interest": "Investment bank with exposure to the technology industry",
    "status": "Open. So far the measured effect lies below this; the benchmark serves as an upper bound for the first force.",
    "sources": [
      29
    ],
    "line": 710,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 7 (WAAI-2026-V07). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  },
  {
    "id": "WAAI-2026-V08",
    "number": 8,
    "source": "Anthropic Institute, September 2026",
    "prediction": "In the moderate and the substantial scenario, the American unemployment rate stands at 3.9 and 4.6 percent respectively at the beginning of 2030; only in the extreme scenario does it reach 17.9 percent in office and knowledge occupations.",
    "target_year": 2030,
    "self_interest": "Research unit of a vendor",
    "status": "Not a prediction but a model calculation; the report carries it as a frame against which the job killer story can be measured, and in 2027 it tests the underlying assumptions about adoption.",
    "sources": [
      130
    ],
    "line": 711,
    "citation": "Kürner, Gerhard (2026): Work After AI 2026. The Great Misconception About the AI Job Killer. Work After AI, 2026 edition, version 1.2, external benchmark 8 (WAAI-2026-V08). Wels: Kuerner Group GmbH. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22868155.",
    "version": "1.2"
  }
]